{"id":6301,"date":"2019-09-13T11:00:40","date_gmt":"2019-09-13T05:30:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/?p=6301"},"modified":"2022-03-10T14:01:12","modified_gmt":"2022-03-10T08:31:12","slug":"tcs-is-within-striking-distance-of-fortune-global-500-even-without-ma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/13\/tcs-is-within-striking-distance-of-fortune-global-500-even-without-ma\/","title":{"rendered":"TCS Is Within Striking Distance Of FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 &#8211; Even Without M&#038;A"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A decade ago, China had 29 FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 companies. Today, it has 119.<\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s corresponding figures are 7 and 7.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/FORTUNE-GLOBAL500-COVER-2019-small.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-6304 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/FORTUNE-GLOBAL500-COVER-2019-small-150x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/FORTUNE-GLOBAL500-COVER-2019-small-150x200.jpg 150w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/FORTUNE-GLOBAL500-COVER-2019-small.jpg 194w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a>The GDPs of both countries have grown rapidly during this period. While China has seen a proportionate increase in its representation in Fortune Global 500, India has not.<\/p>\n<p>This has appeared to be an anomaly for a long time including up to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2018\/09\/07\/ma-is-low-hanging-fruit-for-indian-it-industry-to-enter-fortune-global-500\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">last year<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But no longer.<\/p>\n<p>I had an epiphany moment when\u00a0I read the following line in this\u00a0year&#8217;s FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 issue.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Britain, which boasted 40 Global 500 companies in 2000, has just 17 this year.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Hmmm.<\/p>\n<p>Given that UK&#8217;s economy has also grown during this period, the reduction in its Global 500 representation suggests that <em><strong>there doesn&#8217;t need to be any correlation<\/strong><\/em> between a country&#8217;s GDP and the number of Fortune Global 500 corporations it has.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe it&#8217;s just that some economies expand by adding a few big companies that enter the Fortune Global 500 (e.g. China) whereas others do so more equitably i.e. via a lot of midsized companies that don&#8217;t enter the august list (e.g. UK, India).<\/p>\n<p>Given the huge backlash in the current public discourse against income inequalities caused by large corporations, it may be a good thing that India <strong><em>does not have<\/em><\/strong> so many Fortune Global 500 companies.<\/p>\n<hr style=\"width: 70%;\" \/>\n<p>With that chronic anomaly out of the way, here&#8217;s a quick overview of this year&#8217;s Fortune Global 500.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Walmart<\/strong> (USA) and <strong>Air Liquide<\/strong> (France) bring up the top and bottom of this year&#8217;s list of the world&#8217;s largest corporations.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/contours-fortune-global-500-2019.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-6302\" src=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/contours-fortune-global-500-2019.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"123\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/contours-fortune-global-500-2019.jpg 1377w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/contours-fortune-global-500-2019-200x49.jpg 200w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/contours-fortune-global-500-2019-768x189.jpg 768w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/contours-fortune-global-500-2019-1024x252.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The revenue of the last company on the list has grown by <strong>5.26%<\/strong>\u00a0year-on-year (from US$ 23.556 billion last year to <strong>US$ 24.796 billion<\/strong> this year). With the sole exception of 2015-2016 when it dropped, the <em><strong>FG500 Qualifying Revenue\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>has shown positive y-o-y growth in every year of the past decade.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-qualifying-revenue-chart-upto-2019.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-6312\" src=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-qualifying-revenue-chart-upto-2019.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"222\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-qualifying-revenue-chart-upto-2019.jpg 654w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-qualifying-revenue-chart-upto-2019-200x89.jpg 200w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-qualifying-revenue-chart-upto-2019-630x280.jpg 630w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Saudi oil giant <strong>Saudi Aramco<\/strong> makes its entry to the list at #6 with revenues of US$ 355.905 billion. It&#8217;s also the most profitable company on the list with profits of US$ 110.974 billion. The company is reportedly planning to go public next year. When that happens, Saudi Aramco will dwarf Amazon, Apple, Microsoft <em>et al<\/em> to become the most valuable company in the world, with an expected market cap of US$ 3 trillion.<\/p>\n<p>While Fortune Global 500 is a ranking of global corporations by revenues, the list also provides profit ranks. I tend to take a quick glance at ranking by profits just to gauge whether a company is punching above or below its revenue weight on profit. During this process, I stumbled upon an interesting tidbit: India&#8217;s largest company, <em>Reliance Industries Limited<\/em>, has the same rank on revenues and profits (#106). I don&#8217;t recall coming across such a bizarre and amazing coincidence in my +25 years experience of tracking the Fortune 500 lists.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/FORTUNE-GLOBAL500-2019-WORLD-MAP-UPSIDE-DOWN-2.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-6303 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/FORTUNE-GLOBAL500-2019-WORLD-MAP-UPSIDE-DOWN-2-155x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"155\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/FORTUNE-GLOBAL500-2019-WORLD-MAP-UPSIDE-DOWN-2-155x200.jpg 155w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/FORTUNE-GLOBAL500-2019-WORLD-MAP-UPSIDE-DOWN-2.jpg 764w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 155px) 100vw, 155px\" \/><\/a>The map used by <em>FORTUNE <\/em>in its Global 500 issue shows India and many other countries in the eastern hemisphere upside down. I don&#8217;t know what this projection is called. This is the first time I&#8217;m seeing one like this.<\/p>\n<p>6 out of the world&#8217;s 10 most profitable companies are in <em>Financial Services<\/em>. This has been a consistent trend in the Fortune Global 500 lists over the past several years. The much vaunted disruption of traditional banks by new-age fintechs has not happened. Maybe as a nod to that, fintechs have stopped threatening to kill banks and started chanting the bank-partnership mantra. Big mistake in my opinion, but that&#8217;s the <a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/07\/fintech-shouldnt-stop-chanting-the-disruption-mantra\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>topic of another blog post<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Traditionally, banks are ranked by assets. But Fortune&#8217;s ranking is based on revenues, a metric I find more apt. IMO, assets\u00a0is the cards you&#8217;re dealt whereas revenues is how you play those cards. Thanks to that, India&#8217;s largest bank, <em>State Bank of India<\/em>, finds a place on this list (#236). Had the list ranked banks on assets, SBI would be missing from it &#8211; it has just one-third the assets of the bank ranked next, <em>Deutsche Bank<\/em> (#239). SBI makes up for its comparatively light asset base ($561 billion) with its disproportionately higher revenue (US$ 47.286 billion). In my blog post entitled\u00a0<a title=\"Permanent Link to High NIM Propels Indian Banks Into FORTUNE 500\" href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2013\/07\/21\/high-nim-propels-indian-banks-into-fortune-500\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"bookmark noopener\" data-slimstat=\"5\">High NIM Propels Indian Banks Into FORTUNE 500<\/a>, I had attributed the higher revenue-to-asset ratio of SBI and other Indian banks to high <em>Net Interest Margin<\/em> regime in India.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">You can sell 10% of your company&#39;s equity for $100M &amp; become a Unicorn ($1B market cap). But you can\u2019t sell 10% of your company&#39;s production for $500M &amp; become a FORTUNE 500 corporation ($5B revenue). Ergo I find rankings of company size based on market cap a bit flaky.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; GTM360 (@GTM360) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GTM360\/status\/1141684732884856833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 20, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<hr style=\"width: 70%;\" \/>\n<p>Moving on to the Indian IT industry.<\/p>\n<p>As in the last year, my model comprises <strong>TCS<\/strong>, <strong>Infosys<\/strong>, <strong>HCL<\/strong> and <strong>Wipro<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This is what the picture looks like:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-2019-fi.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-6306 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-2019-fi.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-2019-fi.jpg 630w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/fg500-2019-fi-200x89.jpg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sketharaman.com\/Research_&amp;_Intellectual_Property.htm#raip33\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a> to download this model.<\/p>\n<p>All companies except Wipro grew faster than the <em>FG500 Qualifying Revenue<\/em>\u00a0last year. I don&#8217;t know whether they achieved their high growth rates because they took <a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2019\/03\/15\/indian-it-industry-needs-better-quality-sellers-marketers-not-engineers-part-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">my advice to focus on sales and marketing rather than on building digital skills<\/a>!<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I know I said recently that the Indian IT industry needs better quality sellers. But I didn\u2019t expect TCS, Infosys, Wipro et al to hire an \u201celite\u201d salesforce so quickly! Correlation or Causation? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yeJFdls60k\">https:\/\/t.co\/yeJFdls60k<\/a> via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GTM360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@GTM360<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IZvG0puVON\">pic.twitter.com\/IZvG0puVON<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Ketharaman Swaminathan (@s_ketharaman) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/s_ketharaman\/status\/1121040336049115136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 24, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>TCS is within striking distance of Fortune Global 500. At its current growth rate, the company should be able to enter the list in 2024 &#8211; even just with organic growth. With some inevitable M&amp;A, the country&#8217;s largest IT company might become one of the world&#8217;s 500 largest companies even earlier than five years out.<\/p>\n<p>While Infosys has grown grown faster than the <em>FG500 Qualifying Revenue\u00a0<\/em>this year, the gulf between its present size (US$ 11.799 billion) and Global 500 entry point (US$ 24.796 billion) is very wide (nearly US$ 13 billion).<\/p>\n<p>Without M&amp;A, I see no way for Infosys to bridge the gap and enter the FG500 list during my model&#8217;s time horizon (through to FYE 2028).<\/p>\n<p>Even with M&amp;A, the size of acquisition required for Infosys to bridge the gulf (~US$ 13 billion) and enter the Global 500 exceeds the company&#8217;s present revenues (~US$ 12 billion). To be honest, I see very little chances of that kind of M&amp;A happening in the forseeable future. Infosys hasn&#8217;t demonstrated the penchance for gamechanging M&amp;A deals (ditto the other big companies in the industry). Unless that changes, Infosys &#8211; ditto HCL and Wipro &#8211; are unlikely to become a Global 500 corporation anytime soon, even with M&amp;A.<\/p>\n<p>While HCL has grown faster than Infosys (10.13% versus 7.86%), it won&#8217;t even catch up with Infosys during the model&#8217;s timescale, let alone enter the Global 500.<\/p>\n<p>As I predicted in my <a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2018\/09\/07\/ma-is-low-hanging-fruit-for-indian-it-industry-to-enter-fortune-global-500\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">last year&#8217;s post<\/a>, Wipro lost its third place on the industry league table to HCL.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, it appears that all our hopes are pinned on TCS to get the Indian IT industry a place in the FORTUNE GLOBAL 500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A decade ago, China had 29 FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 companies. Today, it has 119. India&#8217;s corresponding figures are 7 and 7. The GDPs of both countries have grown rapidly during this period. While China has seen a proportionate increase in its representation in Fortune Global 500, India has not. This has appeared to be an &#8230; <a title=\"TCS Is Within Striking Distance Of FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 &#8211; Even Without M&#038;A\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/13\/tcs-is-within-striking-distance-of-fortune-global-500-even-without-ma\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about TCS Is Within Striking Distance Of FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 &#8211; Even Without M&#038;A\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6306,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,8,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-b1-integrated-marketing","category-it-marketing","category-mandatory-category"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6301"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9305,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6301\/revisions\/9305"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}