{"id":1647,"date":"2014-12-19T11:00:55","date_gmt":"2014-12-19T05:30:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/?p=1647"},"modified":"2021-11-05T16:26:39","modified_gmt":"2021-11-05T10:56:39","slug":"how-to-lie-with-big-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/19\/how-to-lie-with-big-data\/","title":{"rendered":"How To Lie With Big Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/51FVlKJT9JL.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-1939\" src=\"http:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/51FVlKJT9JL.jpg\" alt=\"51FVlKJT9JL\" width=\"200\" height=\"304\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/51FVlKJT9JL.jpg 329w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/51FVlKJT9JL-131x200.jpg 131w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a>Darrell Huff&#8217;s classic\u00a0<strong>How To Lie With Statistics<\/strong> is as relevant now as it was when it was published 60 years ago.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, it&#8217;s perhaps more relevant now because, as more data has been generated in the last three years than in the entire history of mankind, there&#8217;s so much more raw material for lying now than ever before.<\/p>\n<p>Whether it&#8217;s statistics or big data, the goal of lying is still the same:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Draw\u00a0a favorable conclusion by ignoring unfavorable alternatives.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Coming to the techniques of lying, let&#8217;s see how they have evolved by taking a few examples of playing footloose with data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#1. Faux Data<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;I polled my 1000+ LinkedIn Connections to ask them whether they preferred fingerprint or password to access their Mobile Banking app. 80% of respondents voted in favor of Fingerprint.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s\u00a0intuitively clear that people will prefer the convenience of a fingerprint over the pain of entering a long password on the virtual keyboard of a smartphone. That said, we crave data before agreeing or disagreeing with anything. This statement slakes our thirst for numbers, so we readily give it the thumbs up.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s only problem: The aforementioned statement suggests that 800 people voted for fingerprint. \u00a0That&#8217;s totally wrong, as you can see by looking up the actual figures <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/nhome\/updates?topic=5907866411274878976\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This technique works by using word play. In this example, the sleight-of-hand is in the word &#8220;respondents&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/istockphoto_thinkstock_silence_1.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-1942\" src=\"http:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/istockphoto_thinkstock_silence_1.jpg\" alt=\"istockphoto_thinkstock_silence_1\" width=\"200\" height=\"115\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/istockphoto_thinkstock_silence_1.jpg 608w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/istockphoto_thinkstock_silence_1-200x115.jpg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><strong>#2. Strategic Silence<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;Sixty-two percent of consumers expect live chat to be available on mobile devices, and 82% would use it.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>I read\u00a0this in the following tweet by\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rshevlin\/status\/522021652780302336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@rshevlin<\/a><\/strong>.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;62% of shoppers want live chat with brands on mobile devices&quot; <a href=\"http:\/\/t.co\/AHfZGfcPR7\">http:\/\/t.co\/AHfZGfcPR7<\/a> &lt;-Nonsense. 62% of ppl don&#39;t know what live chat is.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Ron Shevlin (@rshevlin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rshevlin\/status\/522021652780302336?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2014<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>I agree with @rshevlin: &#8220;Nonsense. 62% of ppl don&#8217;t know what live chat is&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>If you probe deeper, you might find the truth unraveling as follows: &#8220;62% of shoppers who know about live chat want it on mobile devices&#8221;. Considering that not more than 20% of consumers are likely to know about live chat, the above finding would translate to:<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;12% of shoppers want live chat with brands on mobile devices&#8221;.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>(12% being 20% of 62%).<\/p>\n<p>This won&#8217;t help someone trying to sell mobile live chat. Hence the &#8220;strategic silence&#8221; on details.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#3. Exploiting Calculitis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;A growing digital advertising market has also seen increased adoption among B2B marketers.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Blogger\u00a0<a title=\"All posts by Poornima Mohandas\" href=\"http:\/\/calliduscloud.com\/blog\/author\/poornima\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Poornima Mohandas<\/a>\u00a0waxes eloquently about the popularity of PPC ads in B2B in her post \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/calliduscloud.com\/blog\/how-to-create-ppc-ads-that-close-sales\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">How to Create PPC Ads That Close Sales<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/lbd-fi.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1944 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/lbd-fi.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/lbd-fi.jpg 630w, https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/lbd-fi-200x88.jpg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, according to data, only 15% of B2B marketers agree with her conclusion. Which is disastrous for the author&#8217;s obvious attempt to plug her white paper about PPC in her blog post.<\/p>\n<p>So what happens?<\/p>\n<p>We see the premise broken into two parts:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Percentage of B2B marketers who use PPC: 48%<\/li>\n<li>Percentage of them who find PPC very effective: 32%.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Now, for somebody to like PPC, they need to have used it and found it effective. That figure works out to 48% of 32% i.e. 15.36%. In other words, a\u00a0vast majority of over 84% of B2B marketers\u00a0<em>don\u2019t like PPC ads<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>But many readers afflicted by\u00a0\u201ccalculitis\u201d &#8211; the fear of using a calculator &#8211; might see the two percentages in isolation and say to themselves,\u00a0&#8220;Wow, PPC is widely used&#8221; or &#8220;Hmm, PPC seems quite effective&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>And you don&#8217;t expect an author pitching a white paper on PPC to rush to correct that impression, do you?<\/p>\n<hr style=\"width: 70%;\" \/>\n<p>I could go on and on but all the examples would prove the same thing: The techniques for lying with data are still crude.<\/p>\n<p>While data has grown by leaps and bounds in the last 60 years, the tricks to lie with it haven&#8217;t kept pace.<\/p>\n<p>I leave it to you to decide whether that&#8217;s a good or bad thing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Darrell Huff&#8217;s classic\u00a0How To Lie With Statistics is as relevant now as it was when it was published 60 years ago. In fact, it&#8217;s perhaps more relevant now because, as more data has been generated in the last three years than in the entire history of mankind, there&#8217;s so much more raw material for lying &#8230; <a title=\"How To Lie With Big Data\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/19\/how-to-lie-with-big-data\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about How To Lie With Big Data\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1944,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-b1-integrated-marketing","category-mandatory-category"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1647"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8589,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1647\/revisions\/8589"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1944"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gtm360.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}